The Pound to Euro exchange rate holds steady near €1.146 as markets digest divergent economic indicators across Europe and UK, with upcoming German data set to influence currency movements.
The Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate remained relatively unchanged near €1.146 on Monday, despite stronger-than-expected economic sentiment data from the Eurozone. At the time of writing, GBP/EUR was trading at €1.1463, reflecting a muted market reaction to the slight improvement in the Eurozone economic sentiment index, which rose to 95.5 in September, defying forecasts that anticipated a fall to 95.2. This marginal uptick indicated a mild rise in confidence across the bloc but failed to translate into significant demand for the Euro.
Broader market dynamics played a considerable role in this subdued Euro performance. Investor appetite leaned towards risk-sensitive currencies, leaving the Euro, typically seen as a defensive asset, at a disadvantage. The Pound also exhibited a mixed performance, fluctuating within a broad range amid an absence of fresh UK data. Sterling gained some footing from a generally upbeat market mood, advancing against safe-haven currencies, although these gains were constrained when compared to other pro-cyclical currencies. This nuanced performance reflected wider economic uncertainties impacting both currencies.
Looking ahead, market participants are focusing on key German data releases due on Tuesday, which include August retail sales, unemployment figures, and the September inflation report. Retail sales are expected to rebound from a contraction of -1.5% to a growth of 0.6%, signaling potential consumer spending strength. Unemployment is forecast to remain steady at 6.3%, marking the highest level since 2020, while inflation is anticipated to tick up slightly from 2.2% to 2.3%. If these forecasts hold, they could support the Euro, though lingering weaknesses in the labour market may temper any gains.
Germany’s recent economic indicators provide additional context. The country’s business activity expanded at its fastest pace in 16 months in September, propelled mainly by a revival in the services sector. The HCOB German flash composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) climbed to 52.4, exceeding expectations and marking continued economic growth. However, the manufacturing sector contracted, with the PMI falling to a four-month low of 48.5, underscoring the mixed economic landscape within Germany itself.
Contrastingly, France experienced a sharper economic contraction in September, with its composite PMI indicating the fastest decline since April. Both manufacturing and services sectors suffered declines driven by weak customer demand and a persistent drop in new orders, contributing to a more subdued outlook for parts of the Eurozone.
Italy’s economic sentiment appeared more stable, with slight improvements in construction and services sectors offsetting declines in retail sentiment. Consumer confidence also improved modestly, surpassing forecasts despite the country’s recent GDP contraction and lowered growth expectations for 2025. These diverse national economic performances highlight the complex and uneven recovery unfolding across the Eurozone.
On the UK front, Sterling experienced a rebound on Monday, gaining 0.26% against the US dollar after recovering losses from a recent two-week decline. This recovery followed concerns over increased public borrowing and sluggish performance in key sectors like manufacturing and services. Attention also remains on the upcoming Labour Party conference in Liverpool, where debates around potential welfare policy changes could influence market sentiment.
However, Sterling’s recent struggles remain evident in context. Earlier in the week, Sterling had weakened against the US dollar, influenced by a cautious tone from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell regarding interest rate cuts, which bolstered the dollar and pressured the Pound. The UK’s domestic economic indicators, particularly reports of slowdowns in factory and service sector activity, have contributed to a bearish sentiment around Sterling.
With only a quiet UK economic calendar forthcoming, market focus will likely shift to remarks from Bank of England officials. Any hawkish signals, suggesting a possible tightening of monetary policy, could provide Sterling with additional support as the week progresses.
In summary, the GBP/EUR exchange rate is navigating a complex environment shaped by mixed economic signals across both the UK and Eurozone. While the Euro is marginally buoyed by better-than-expected German data and stable sentiment in Italy, persistent weaknesses in France and Germany’s manufacturing sector restrain the currency’s upside. Meanwhile, Sterling’s modest recovery contends with domestic vulnerabilities and external pressures, leaving the currency pair broadly range-bound in the near term.
📌 Reference Map:
- Paragraph 1 – [1], [3], [4]
- Paragraph 2 – [1], [2], [6]
- Paragraph 3 – [1], [3]
- Paragraph 4 – [3], [4]
- Paragraph 5 – [5]
- Paragraph 6 – [2], [6]
- Paragraph 7 – [1], [6]
- Paragraph 8 – [1], [2], [6]
Source: Noah Wire Services
Noah Fact Check Pro
The draft above was created using the information available at the time the story first
emerged. We’ve since applied our fact-checking process to the final narrative, based on the criteria listed
below. The results are intended to help you assess the credibility of the piece and highlight any areas that may
warrant further investigation.
Freshness check
Score:
8
Notes:
The narrative was published on September 29, 2025, and references recent data up to that date, indicating high freshness. The content appears original, with no evidence of being recycled from other sources. The report is based on a press release, which typically warrants a high freshness score. No discrepancies in figures, dates, or quotes were found. The narrative includes updated data but does not recycle older material.
Quotes check
Score:
10
Notes:
No direct quotes are present in the narrative, suggesting it is potentially original or exclusive content.
Source reliability
Score:
6
Notes:
The narrative originates from Currency News UK, a UK-based financial news outlet. While it provides timely updates, its reputation and editorial standards are less established compared to major financial news organisations. The lack of direct quotes and reliance on a press release may affect the overall reliability.
Plausability check
Score:
9
Notes:
The claims made in the narrative align with recent market trends and economic data. The language and tone are consistent with financial reporting standards. The structure is focused and relevant, without excessive or off-topic details. No inconsistencies or suspicious elements were identified.
Overall assessment
Verdict (FAIL, OPEN, PASS): OPEN
Confidence (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH): MEDIUM
Summary:
The narrative is fresh and original, with no significant issues identified in the freshness, quotes, or plausibility checks. However, the source’s reliability is moderate due to its lesser-established reputation compared to major financial news outlets. This warrants a medium confidence level in the overall assessment.
Supercharge Your Content Strategy
Feel free to test this content on your social media sites to see whether it works for your community.
